Canada's new climate plan demonstrates the price we pay for procrastination
Actions taken a decade ago would be bearing fruit now. We're running out of time.
Aaron Wherry · CBC News · Posted: Mar 30, 2022 4:00 AM ET | Last Updated: March 30
Addressing unnamed
politicians who would say that the current moment — with the war in Ukraine stoking
inflation and driving up gas prices — is a bad time for fighting climate
change, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told his audience in Vancouver on
Tuesday that "this is no time for excuses."
"The question
is not whether we keep going on climate action," Trudeau argued.
"The question is how much more we can do, and how quickly."
The climate plan
Trudeau's government released on Tuesday is one proposal for how much and
how fast Canada should move. His government will continue to face questions
about whether it is moving as quickly as it could.
But the new report
also shows exactly how much bolder Canada's governments and industries must be
if this country is to do its part to ensure a livable future for the
planet — and exactly where the boldest action is necessary.
The new official
plan for meeting Canada's greenhouse gas emissions reductions target for 2030
is the first mandatory report to Parliament under new climate accountability legislation.
The 271-page document, a
detailed account of what has been done and must be done to meet Canada's
emissions targets, was quickly hailed as a "watershed moment" for Canadian climate
policy.
In time, these
regular progress reports may come to rival the annual budget as the most
important document released by the federal government.
But the most useful
aspect of this first report is how it lays out the possible emissions
trajectories for each of Canada's major sources of greenhouse gases. This
is the first time the federal government has looked forward to 2030 in
such detail.
In his
remarks Tuesday, Trudeau chose to focus on the oil and gas and
transportation sectors — for good reasons.
While overall
emissions in Canada have been relatively stable over the last 17 years, the
national trend has obscured significant differences between sectors.
Students take part in a climate change protest in Montreal on Friday, Sept. 24, 2021. (Ryan Remiorz/The Canadian Press)
"Since 2005,
emissions in the oil and gas and transportation sectors have increased by 20
per cent and 16 per cent, respectively," the report notes. "Decreases
in electricity (48 per cent), heavy industry (12 per cent) and waste and others
(10 per cent) have offset these increases."
The oil and gas and
transportation sectors are also the two largest sources of emissions in Canada.
The challenge is
most acute – and most politically fraught – in oil and gas. As the government
acknowledges in its own report, "the oil and gas sector contributes
significantly to the Canadian economy" and "the challenge of meeting
Canada's climate objectives and transforming an industry as complex as oil and
gas to net-zero emissions is huge."
In its projections,
the government suggests the oil and gas industry could reduce its annual
emissions from 191 megatonnes in 2019 to 110 Mt in 2030 — a 31 per cent reduction
from 2005 levels.
Shell's Quest Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) facility in Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta on October 7, 2021. (Todd Korol/Reuters)
The government
identifies several policy levers that could help the industry get there — a new
investment tax credit for carbon capture and storage, a declining cap on the
sector's emissions and a focus on reducing methane leaks. It also
promises support for workers who might be affected by disruptions in the
sector.
Trudeau — a prime
minister the Conservatives have enthusiastically labelled "anti-oil"
— framed these projections in decidedly pro-industry terms.
"If there's
any oil and gas sector in the world that can do it, it's Canada," he said.
"And if there's any workforce in the world that can drive this shift, it's
Canadians."
Alberta Premier
Jason Kenney — who has been agitating for the federal government to freeze the
national carbon tax and posting memes about green energy
policies — might not be so optimistic. Even Alberta NDP leader
Rachel Notley dismissed the federal projections as "fantasy."
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announces Canada's Emissions Reduction Plan to keep the country on track to net-zero by 2050. 1:31
The federal
Conservatives warned that expecting such reductions from the oil and
gas sector would have a "devastating effect." The government,
Conservatives said, should instead focus on getting Canada's "ethical
energy" to the world — though how energy products could be
described as "ethical" if they can't be reconciled with Canada's
climate targets is a riddle.
Industry executives
might be more willing to play along, with the caveat that such reductions will
require a great deal of "cooperation"
— significant amounts of public funding, in other words.
The tax credit for
carbon capture and storage is likely to appear in next month's federal
budget, though it might not be as generous as oil executives were hoping.
The industry would like the credit to cover 75 per cent of new investment
costs. The government might offer to cover 50 per cent.
But Trudeau also
seems ready to argue the industry is capable of helping itself.
"With record
profits, this is the moment for the oil and gas sector to invest in the
sustainable future that will be good for business, good for communities, and
good for our future," he said on Tuesday.
Industry leaders
might also note that some critics think the sector got off easy
in Tuesday's plan.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau argues that, thanks to soaring profits, the oil and gas industry has the means to do more to fight climate change. (Robert Short/CBC)
In advance of the
report's release, the Pembina Institute argued the industry should be able
to reach 88 Mt by 2030 — a 45 per cent reduction in line
with Canada's overall goal. Caroline Brouillette, the executive director of the
Climate Action Network, said in a statement on Tuesday that "some sectors
— most notably oil and gas — will not contribute their fair share."
Some emissions are
harder to reduce than others and not every economic sector or province is going to move at the
same pace. Matters of "fairness" and feasibility will always be up
for debate.
But the abiding
lesson of climate policy is that avoiding reality doesn't make anything
easier. Lower emissions for oil and gas in 2030 might be easier to envision
now, for instance, had action been taken sooner after 2005. One might gaze
wistfully at the climate plan that Stephen
Harper's government tabled in 2008, with its promise that tough
new requirements would be imposed on the oilsands.
There may be some
risk in trying to act too fast. But the simple math of climate
change is even harder to avoid now. And if Canadian leaders don't
move as boldly as possible in the short term, it might be just that much
harder to reduce emissions later.
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